Journal of Sociology and Social Work

Hazard Assessment of Rainstorm Waterlogging in Urban Communities Based on Scenario Simulation : A Case on Jinsha Community,Shanghai
Zhenguo Zhang1, Jiahong Wen, Xueli Li

Abstract
In this paper, with a case on Jinsha Community in Putuo District in Shanghai, 32 rainstorm water logging disaster risk scenarios in 8 return periods (5a, 10a, 30a, 50a, 100a, 200a, 500a and 1000a) and 4 drainage conditions (0mm / h, 18mm / h, 36mm / h and 50 mm / h) are simulated,analyzed and evaluated using scenario analysis method. The results shows that: (1) rainstorm water logging hazard under different return periods and drainage conditions are mainly concentrated in Jinsha new village and Jiefang village which are all in the middle of research area. But the degree of risk and influence range are decreasing with displacement increasing and increasing with storm intensity increasing; (2) According to the rainstorm water logging hazard matrix, in these 32 water logging disaster scenarios at research area, the high-risk water logging disasters are 21 which account for 66%; the middle- risk water logging disasters are 9 which account for 28% and only 2 are the low-risk water logging disasters which account for 6%; (3) With the increasing of storm intensity, the high-risk acreage shows an increasing trend in all these 4 drainage conditions; the middle-risk acreage shows a continuously increasing tread except under the drainage condition of 0 mm / h with a continuously decreasing trend; and the low-risk acreage shows a continuously decreasing trend under the drainage conditions of 18mm/h and 36mm/h, a continuously increasing tread under the drainage conditions of 0mm/h, and a increasing firstly and then decreasing trend under the drainage condition of 50mm/h; (4) With the increasing of the displacement, the high-risk acreage shows a continuously decreasing trend in a variety of return periods, of which the return period of 200a is a turning point where the decreasing trend slow down; the middle-risk acreage shows both continuously decreasing trend and increasing firstly and then decreasing trend, of which the return period of 100a is a point where the trend turns from decreasing to increasing, and there is no significant change in trend of the low-risk acreage; (5) According to rainstorm water logging hazard curve, with the increasing of displacement, the occurring probability of the middle-risk water logging (over 15cm) is reducing from 100% to 6.8% , and the occurring probability of the high-risk water logging (over 30cm) is reducing from 26% to 0.8%.

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